Jump Jelly Belly

Tariffs, reshoring, something deeper, something darker

My favorite musician is a blues singer named Otis Taylor. And there’s this one song, Jump Jelly Belly, it’s a bit more upbeat than most. It’s catchy. Jump jelly belly, jelly belly jump. It’s fun to say. It’s fun to sing along to. Jump jelly belly.

I once saw Otis Taylor get a small crowd (they are usually small crowds) to their feet with this song. Got everyone dancing and singing along. Jump jelly belly jump.

And then one day I was driving and this song came on and I realized what it was about. It’s World War Two. There is a naval ship that’s been bombed. It’s sinking. The soldiers are jumping onto a rescue boat. Except this one soldier, Jelly Belly. He’s bigger, he’s overweight, and he can’t make the jump. The boat is sinking and he can’t make the jump. Jump jelly belly jump.

You think the song is about something. But it’s about something else. It’s about something deeper. Something darker.

*A lot of Otis Taylor songs have deeper meanings you wouldn’t know if you didn’t know. Here’s another one: Few Feet Away. You couldn’t just know that Otis Taylor is mixed race, and looks mostly black. And you couldn’t know that his daughter Cassie is also mixed race, and looks mostly white. And you couldn’t know that the female vocalist on the track is Cassie. So you couldn’t have your heart broken when you heard the song, because you couldn’t know what it meant when she sings “sometimes they wonder, sometimes they stare, just tell them who I am.”

Otis Taylor and Cassie Taylor. Sometimes they stare.

Oh, this post is about tariffs and the market crash.

This post is about tariffs because those too are about something deeper. Something darker.

A lot of commentators are apoplectic about this tariff crash, and maybe that’s the appropriate response. Global trade is nothing to gamble with, and this whole thing was done sloppily.

But you’ll have to forgive me, I will shed no tears for the US equity investor.

The Nasdaq has lost 11% in three days - and even after this selloff it remains almost exactly double where it was five years ago.

The US equity investor has been coddled and spoiled. US equity investors have been complacent, relying on the Fed Put and Greater Fools to follow them.

They’ve celebrated the idea of ignoring valuations, they’ve been bailed out at the expense of non-asset owners, they’ve piled into a broken market structure.

No, I’ll shed no tears for the US equity investor.

Let’s talk about something else. Let’s talk about something deeper. Something darker.

What are the truck drivers going to do?

There are 3.5 million truck drivers in America. They make a pretty good living, truth be told. Long-haulers can earn $70-80k per year. Owner-operators should easily clear 100k.

The average trucker is 47 years old and supports an average of 2.5 people with their salary.

And, as we all know, autonomous driving is coming. It’s coming sooner than later. And let’s be real here: the truck drivers aren’t getting hired for Menlo Park email jobs.

And again, there are three and a half million of them.

Trucking is one job, I could list a hundred that are going to be automated in the next ten years. So when we talk about tariffs, it’s purpose is deeper. When we talk about reshoring, our failure to do so is darker.

I believe in free trade, and free trade can not coexist with reshoring. I don’t think we can tariff our way to job security. Not on a long term time horizon, at least.

But when looking at the battle between capital and labor over the past 50 years, when looking at the decimation of the middle class and manufacturing towns, when looking at the coming automation and job crisis, is it really so bad to see labor win a single round? While the S&P has soared and asset bubbles are everywhere?

We must break our dependence on supply chains and foreign manufacturing as a matter of security. Covid taught us that. It seems to me that investment into robotics is the most efficient answer, but that does nothing to answer the question of what the 3.5 million truckers will do.

Forcing a recession can break inflation to give some reprieve to the middle class, while allowing the government to refinance it’s obscenely bloated debt at lower rates. Which is not to say that it’s the right move, just that it is about something deeper, and something darker.